With budget deficits exceeding 5% of GDP, the trade deficit making new highs, and political populism creating risks to the modern American social contract, the US socioeconomic climate is fraught with risk. For better or worse, Trump’s trade war is to attempt to reverse many of these problems and attempt to create a new more stable economic order. It’s a high-risk/high reward strategy whose success is to be determined.
The question I’m addressing in this email is if what if the trade war is not entirely about a conflict with trade partners and geopolitical rivals, but instead a class war. Even though protectionism is net negative for growth, it could end up a win for the working classes, younger Americans, and those living in the heartland on a relative basis in terms of wealth and status over coastal populations, older investors, and white collar professionals. I explore this angle and try to determine how much the decision to institute tariffs, and the demographic patterns of their support/opposition reveal a hidden class conflict.
Related Media:
Is Trump’s Trade War a Class War:
Is the trade war a class war? Everyone thinks Trump's tariffs are about punishing China. But what if this battle is just another front in class conflict? In this video, we break down how the trade war functions as a class war and attempts to rewrite the rules for American labor. From Robert Lighthizer’s strategy to the Wall Street backlash, we show how tariffs became a weapon in the battle between capital and labor.
Tariff and Trade Chaos Livestream Part 2: 90 Day Pause Now What?
Due to so much changing news on the trade war and popular demand, I did a second livestream on Friday following up on the previous conversation now that all countries excluding China have received a 90 day reprieve from the most punitive tariffs.
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Disclaimer & Disclosures:
Concur. If you haven’t already, I’d recommend Michael Pettis’s book “Trade Wars are Class Wars”