Is the US Dollar Entering a New Bear Market
The History of US Dollar Cycles
Since peaking in late 2022 at its highest level in two decades, the U.S. dollar has quietly begun to retreat. The DXY is down over 10%, real yield spreads are narrowing, and central banks from Frankfurt to Tokyo are finally catching up to the Fed. Meanwhile, capital is trickling back into emerging markets, gold is firming, and commodity-sensitive currencies are showing signs of life.
Dollar cycles tend to move in long arcs—5 to 10 years—defined not by noise, but by regime change: in Fed policy, fiscal credibility, global growth leadership, or structural imbalances. If history is any guide, the most durable dollar declines began not in panic, but in overconfidence—when the dollar was king, and the imbalances beneath it started to crack.
In this post, I share with you a presentation I made that highlights the history of US dollar cycles since the removal of the gold peg in 1971. There are a lot of similar drivers to each cycle, and we can analyze past cycles to see if the current catalysts are enough to warrant the next major dollar bear market.
Presentation Links:
Link to Download the Slide Deck:
Link to the Video Explanation of the Presentation:
The U.S. dollar isn't just a currency—it's the fulcrum of global finance. In this video, we dive deep into the major dollar bull and bear cycles since 1971: what drove them, what ended them, and how they reshaped the global economy each time. From the Volcker shock and the Plaza Accord to the 1990s tech boom, the 2000s EM super cycle, and the post-COVID dollar surge, we trace the macro forces behind each turn. You'll also learn which asset classes and equity sectors outperform in strong vs. weak dollar regimes—with data, historical context, and tactical insight.
If you've ever wondered how dollar cycles shape everything from emerging market crises to gold bull markets and U.S. tech rallies, this is your full-spectrum briefing.
Do you want to know how to prepare your portfolio for a weak dollar?
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